Avtor/Urednik		Henderson, Robin; Jones, Margaret; Stare, Janez
Naslov		Accuracy of point predictions in survival analysis
Tip		članek
Vir		Stat Med
Vol. in št.		Letnik 20, št. 20
Leto izdaje		2001
Obseg		str. 3083-96
Jezik		eng
Abstrakt		Survival time prediction is important in many applications, particularly for patients diagnosed with terminal diseases. A measure of prediction error taken from the medical literature is advocated as a practicable method of quantifying reliability of point predictions. Optimum predictions are derived for familiar survival models and the accuracy of these predictions is investigated. We argue that poor predictive capability is inherent to standard survival models with realistic parameter values. A lung cancer example is used to illustrate difficulties in prediction in practice.
Deskriptorji		SURVIVAL ANALYSIS TERMINALLY ILL PROBABILITY PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS MODELS, STATISTICAL SEX FACTORS AGE FACTORS NEOPLASM STAGING HOARSENESS NEOPLASM METASTASIS