Author/Editor		Sočan, Maja
Title		Predvidena zbolevnost, umrljivost in možni ukrepi ob pandemiji gripe v Sloveniji
Type		monografija
Place		Ljubljana
Publication year		2005
Volume		str. 45
Language		slo
Abstract		Influenza pandemic affected the mankind several times. Influenza virus changes often but the change or less minor. If influenza virus genom changes extensively, the new subtype develops. The population is not immune to the new subtype. In case, that new subtype is transmitted from one to another effectively, the pandemic arises. The last pandemic was in late seventies in the 20st century. As believed by most of the experts, the next pandemic is inevitable. The emergence of highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 virus, which can be transmitted directly from sick birds to human, raised the possibility of the emergance of pandemic strain. It is impossible to predict the origin, time or dimension of next pandemic. There are numerous importan question which could not be answered, specially those regarding vaccine and antiviral drugs stock-pilling. In the USA, a prediction model was made, which we used to calculate the number of patients visiting their primary care physicians, the expected number of hospitalised patients and number of those who will die during pandemic. If pandemic affects a low percentage of population, the burden of influenza will be relatively low. But 45% morbiditity rate will cause around 27 000 hospitalisations and more then 6000 will die as the consequence of complicated influenza. The quantity of vaccine against pandemic influenza subtype virus is expected to be limited. According to WHO recommendations, health care workers (HCW) should be vaccinated first. To vaccinate HCW in Slovenia, at least 40 000 doses of the vaccine should be purchased. If possible, all patients at risk should be vaccinated but in that cases the number of doses required is much higher (around 400 000). In pandemic, there will be shortage of antiviral drugs. The antivirals should be used only for those patients who will be hospitalised and treated for complicated influenza infection (Abstract truncated at 2000 characters)
Descriptors		INFLUENZA DISEASE OUTBREAKS INFLUENZA VACCINE ANTIVIRAL AGENTS INFLUENZA A VIRUS, AVIAN SLOVENIA