Author/Editor		Grmek-Košnik, Irena; Albreht, Tit
Title		Načrtovanje števila zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov v zdravstvu - metode, uporabnost, omejive in odvisnosti
Translated title		Physician and dentist workforce planning methods, applicability, limitations and dependence
Type		članek
Source		Zdrav Vars
Vol. and No.		Letnik 45, št. 2
Publication year		2006
Volume		str. 96-106
Language		slo
Abstract		Background: Doctor and dentist workforce planning is one of the most complex tasks in the health care system planning. Efficient planning of health professionals is most commonly hindered by lack of data regarding the demand for physicians and vacancies, by verified demographic data on physicians, by outdated information on the available number of professionals, and by difficulty to access the needed. Methods: Using statistics on active physicians and dentists provided by health statistical yearbooks for 1980, 1990 and 2003, issued by the Institute of Public Health of the Republic of Slovenia, as well as data on specialist training posts from the first national tender in 2003 to predict need for physicians over the next years, and to evaluate the adequacy of previous predictions. Results: Between 1980 and 1990, the total number of active physicians and dentists increased by 1172 (32.3%), the average annual increase being 3.2%. During the period 1990 - 2003, this number increased by 655 (12%), which brought the average annual increase down to less than 1%. It needs to be stressed that the annual number of medical graduates in Slovenia varied considerably during the period 1986-2003. Conclusions: Several reliable calculations (using the current provisional workforce standards) showed that there is a net lack of a few hundred physicians in the public network. The trend of physician deficit is estimated to continue for at least several years. The demand will predominantly be met by employing medical and dental graduates from the Faculty of Medicine, University of Ljubljana, in a few years followed by the graduates from the newly opened Faculty of Medicine in Maribor. An estimated 4%-8% of the total workforce will need to be imported from abroad. Current trained specialist workforce planning is still far from optimal.
Summary		Izhodišča: Načrtovanje števila zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov je ena najtežjih oziroma najbolj zahtevnih nalog načrtovanja sistema zdravstvenega varstva. Najpogostejše ovire za učinkovito načrtovanje zdravstvenih delavcev so: pomanjkanje znanja o povpraševanju po zdravnikih, nepreverjenimi demografski podatki o zdravnikih, pomanjkanje podatkov o nezapolnjenih delovnih mestih, zastarelost podatkov o številu poklicev, slaba dostopnost zahtevanih podatkov. Metode: S pomočjo podatkov o število aktivnih zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov na podlagi zdravstvenostatističnih letopisov, ki jih izdaja Inštitut za varovanje zdravja Republike Slovenije, za leto 1980, 1990 in 2002 in razpisanih mest specializacij v prvem nacionalnem razpisu za leto 2003, smo poskusili napovedati gibanja o potrebah zdravnikov v prihodnjih letih ter ovrednotiti primernost dosedanjega načrtovanja zdravnikov. Rezultati: Število aktivnih zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov skupaj se je od leta 1980 na 1990 povečalo za 1172 (32,3%) oz. je bil povprečni letni prirastek 3,2%. Od leta 1990 do leta 2002 se je zdravniški stan okrepil le za 655 (12%) novih zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov oz. je bil povprečni letni prirastek le 1%. Število diplomantov Medicinske fakultete je od leta 1986 do 2002 zelo nihalo. Zaključki: Različni izračuni kažejo, da v obstoječi mreži ob sedanjih provizoričnih normativih primanjkuje nekaj sto zdravnikov. Ocenili smo, da se bo vsaj nekaj let še nadaljeval trend zmanjševanja oskrbljenosti z zdravniki. Število aktivnih zdravnikov bodo v glavnem zagotavljali diplomanti Medicinske fakultete v Ljubljani in po nekaj letih tudi Medicinske fakultete v Mariboru, okrog 4-8% tudi z zaposlovanjem zdravnikov iz tujine. Trenutno stanje načrtovanja kadrov v zdravstvu je še daleč od optimalnega.
Descriptors		HEALTH PLANNING HEALTH CARE PHYSICIANS DENTISTS HEALTH SERVICES NEEDS AND DEMAND SPECIALISM PUBLIC POLICY