Author/Editor		Manevski, Damjan; Pohar Perme, Maja; Blagus, Rok
Title		Ocena stopnje reprodukcije okužbe in deleža okuženih z virusom SARS-CoV-2 v Sloveniji
Translated title		Estimation of the reproductive number and the outbreak size of SARS-CoV-2 in Slovenia
Type		članek
Publication year		2020
Volume		str. str.
ISSN		1318-0347 - Zdravniški vestnik : glasilo Slovenskega zdravniškega društva : Slovenian medical journal
Language		slv
Abstract		Background: the paper estimates the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions implemented to slow-down the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in Slovenia. Our main measures of interest are the reproductive number in time and the total number of infected individuals. Methods: we apply a recently proposed Bayes model, which is built using most recent data of 12 (model A) or 10 European countries (model B, Spain and Italy excluded). Results: the reproductive number after lock-down is estimated to equal 0.6, with the whole 95% credible interval remaining below 1 [0.3-0.9]. By excluding Italy and Spain from the model (model B), the estimated reproductive number increases to 0.8 (95% credible interval [0.5-1.2]). The estimated proportion of infected individuals in Slovenia is below 1% (0.53 [0.23-1.01]% in model A and 0.66 [0.26-1.45]% in model B). Thus, it is our opinion that the official number of confirmed cases underestimates the true one approximately by a factor of 10. Conclusion: the results indicate that the interventions were successful, we estimate that the current reproductive number is below 1. We estimate that it is sensible to keep the current set of interventions for at least 2 more weeks, as we expect that this will ensure at least 5 additional weeks before the need to reinitiate lock-down.
Keywords		pandemija SARS-CoV-2 reproduktivno število nefarmakološki ukrepi SARS-CoV-2 pandemics reproductive number non-pharmaceutical interventions