Author/Editor		Albreht, Tit
Title		Analiza profesionalne demografije zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov v Sloveniji 1986 do 1995 z ocenami za obdobje 1996 do 2010
Translated title		Analysis of physicians' and dentists' professional demography in Slovenia between 1986 and 1995 with estimates for the period 1996 until 2010
Type		članek
Source		Zdrav Vestn
Vol. and No.		Letnik 68, št. 11
Publication year		1999
Volume		str. 647-53
Language		slo
Abstract		Background. Medical and dental manpower planning is one of the key elements of health care planning. In that field, extensive research has been performed in the USA and Canada, but also in certain European countries. The main areas of that research include: estimation of need for physicians and dentists using demographic criteria (both of the general population as well as of the two professional groups in question) and estimates of needs for health care (both objective and subjective), planned numbers of newly admitted medical and dental students, planned numbers of residents' posts. Methods. We analysed demographic characteristics of the populations of physicians and dentists in Slovenia using: data on numbers of physicians and dentists over the past 20 years, number of graduates of both professions over the past 10 years as well as data on retirements and unemployment figures over the past 10 years. Based on that, we could show trends for the period 1986 to 1996 and attempt to predict trends for the following 15 years. Results. In 1970s and 1980s we noticed a relativety fast growth in the numbers of physicians and dentists which in 1990s slowed down. In the last seven years of the observation period that growth has been only at the level of 0.5% annually. Slovenia has thus achieved a stable number of physicians and dentists in which the numbers of graduates cover for most of the needs for junior doctors and the unemployment is low. Conclusions. It will be possible to sustain to the larger degree the number of active physicians with the current numbers of medical graduates of the Medical Faculty in Ljubljana. In the, case of dentists that will probably not be possible. Demographic characteristics of the physician and dentist populations show same trends as they have been established by the colleagues in Western European countries (eg Saugmann).
Summary		Izhodišča. Načrtovanje števila zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov je eden ključnih elementov načrtovanja zdravstvene dejavnosti. Na tem področju je bilo predvsem v ZDA in Kanadi, pa tudi v nekaterih evropskih državah, opravljenih precej raziskav. Njihova torišča so: ugotavljanje potreb po zdravnikih s pomočjo demografskih meril (tako splošne populacije kot značilnosti populacij zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov) in povpraševanja, načrtovanje števila vpisanih študentov in načrtovanje števila specializantskih mest. Metode. S pomočjo podatkov o: številu zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov za preteklih 20 let, številu diplomantov za preteklih l0let, številu upokojenih in številu brezposelnih za preteklih 10 let smo analizirali demografske značilnosti populacij zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov. Na podlagi le-teh smo prikazali trende v obdobju 1986 do 1996 ter poskusili napovedati gibanja v prihodnjih 15 letih. Rezultati. V 70. in 80.letih smo ugotavljali sorazmerno hitro rast števila zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov, ki pa se je potem v 90. letih precej umirila. Tako je bila v zadnjih sedmih letih opazovanega obdobja rast števila zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov le 0,5% letno. Slovenija je tako dosegla ravnotežje v številu zdravnikov in zobozdravnikov, pri čemer število diplomantov krije večino potreb po mladih zdravnikih, brezposelnost pa je majhna. Zaključki. Število aktivnih zdravnikov bo možno zagotavljati na potrebni ravni v veliki večini spomočjo diplomantov Medicinske fakultete v Ljubljani,kar pa pri stomatologih najverjetneje ne bo možno. Demografske značilnosti zdravniške in zobozdravniške populacije kažejo enake trende, kot jih ugotavIjajo kolegi v zahodnoevropskih državah (Saugmann).
Descriptors		HEALTH CARE DELIVERY OF HEALTH CARE PHYSICIANS DENTISTS DEMOGRAPHY SLOVENIA UNEMPLOYMENT