Author/Editor		Henderson, Robin; Jones, Margaret; Stare, Janez
Title		Accuracy of point predictions in survival analysis
Type		članek
Source		Stat Med
Vol. and No.		Letnik 20, št. 20
Publication year		2001
Volume		str. 3083-96
Language		eng
Abstract		Survival time prediction is important in many applications, particularly for patients diagnosed with terminal diseases. A measure of prediction error taken from the medical literature is advocated as a practicable method of quantifying reliability of point predictions. Optimum predictions are derived for familiar survival models and the accuracy of these predictions is investigated. We argue that poor predictive capability is inherent to standard survival models with realistic parameter values. A lung cancer example is used to illustrate difficulties in prediction in practice.
Descriptors		SURVIVAL ANALYSIS TERMINALLY ILL PROBABILITY PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS MODELS, STATISTICAL SEX FACTORS AGE FACTORS NEOPLASM STAGING HOARSENESS NEOPLASM METASTASIS